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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Trey Ogden won · U-DEC R3

Elo1505

Elo1476

Trey OgdenvsDaniel ZellhuberUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Saturday, September 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Trey Ogden won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTrey Ogden: Well-roundedvsDaniel Zellhuber: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber wins(72.0%)

Actual result: Trey Ogden wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Zellhuber at -410 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Zellhuber enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Trey Ogden has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Zellhuber (52.9%).
Daniel Zellhuber has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Trey Ogden

Red Corner

Daniel Zellhuber

Blue Corner

+330

(23%)

Vegas Odds

-410

(80%)

1505

Elo

1476

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Trey Ogden

oldest →

vs Jordan Leavitt · Apr 22

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 23

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 24

vs Loik Radzhabov · Jul 24

vs Thiago Moises · Jan 25

latest

Daniel ZellhuberL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Christos Giagos · Sep 23

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Sep 24

vs Michael Johnson · Jul 25

KOvs King Green · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Trey OgdenMetricDaniel Zellhuber

3.20

Strikes / min

5.45

3.49

Strikes absorbed / min

6.17

55%

Strike defense

54%

1.89

TDs / 15 min

0.14

100%

Takedown defense

81%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Trey OgdenDaniel Zellhuber

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Trey Ogden(6 fights)Daniel Zellhuber(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.5|Blue -28.5

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Trey OgdenTargetDaniel Zellhuber

By target zone

20% acc · 31%

Head

15% acc · 37%

54% acc · 10%

Body

53% acc · 40%

91% acc · 59%

Leg

92% acc · 23%

By position

42% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Trey Ogden rounds

even

Daniel Zellhuber rounds

Round 1Trey Ogden edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Trey Ogden edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control0:38

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Trey Ogden edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 168

Sig Strikes

52 / 178

42%

Sig Str %

29.7%

72 / 169

Total Strikes

52 / 178

1 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

8.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Zellhuber	12 / 36	12 / 36	0 / 0
1	Trey Ogden	20 / 47	20 / 47	0 / 1
2	Daniel Zellhuber	23 / 64	23 / 64	0 / 0
2	Trey Ogden	26 / 57	27 / 58	1 / 4
3	Daniel Zellhuber	17 / 78	17 / 78	0 / 0
3	Trey Ogden	25 / 64	25 / 64	0 / 4

Trey Ogden

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6

Daniel Zellhuber

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7