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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Zak Cummings won · U-DEC R3

Elo1379

Elo1499

Trevor SmithvsZak CummingsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · Saturday, December 15, 2018Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Zak Cummings won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTrevor Smith: Well-roundedvsZak Cummings: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Trevor Smith wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Zak Cummings wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Trevor Smith at +270 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Zak Cummings (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Trevor Smith

Red Corner

Zak Cummings

Blue Corner

+270

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-330

(77%)

1379

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Trevor SmithL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Joe Gigliotti · Aug 16

vs Andrew Sanchez · Dec 16

vs Chris Camozzi · May 17

vs Elias Theodorou · May 18

KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Dec 19

latest

Zak CummingsW2 streak

oldest →

vs Michel Prazeres · May 18

SUBvs Trevin Giles · May 19

vs Omari Akhmedov · Sep 19

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 20

KOvs Ed Herman · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Trevor SmithMetricZak Cummings

3.29

Strikes / min

2.96

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

51%

Strike defense

55%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

0.62

60%

Takedown defense

66%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Trevor SmithZak Cummings

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Trevor Smith(10 fights)Zak Cummings(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -120.7|Blue +120.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -8.0|Blue +8.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Trevor SmithTargetZak Cummings

By target zone

49% acc · 78%

Head

28% acc · 54%

79% acc · 20%

Body

82% acc · 16%

25% acc · 2%

Leg

85% acc · 30%

By position

51% acc · 76%

Distance

38% acc · 86%

56% acc · 9%

Clinch

57% acc · 7%

62% acc · 15%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Trevor Smith rounds

even

Zak Cummings rounds

Round 1Trevor Smith edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Zak Cummings edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Zak Cummings edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control2:06

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:47Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 103

Sig Strikes

56 / 139

53%

Sig Str %

43.7%

73 / 128

Total Strikes

63 / 147

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:06

Ctrl Time

2:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zak Cummings	13 / 40	18 / 45	0 / 2
1	Trevor Smith	18 / 33	21 / 36	0 / 0
2	Zak Cummings	22 / 68	22 / 68	0 / 1
2	Trevor Smith	19 / 42	19 / 42	0 / 0
3	Zak Cummings	21 / 31	23 / 34	0 / 2
3	Trevor Smith	17 / 28	33 / 50	0 / 0

Trevor Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Zak Cummings

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14