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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Trevor Smith won · Decision R3
Elo1379
Elo1359
Joe Gigliotti

Trevor SmithvsJoe GigliottiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · Saturday, August 6, 2016Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Trevor Smith won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Trevor Smith wins(72.1%)

Actual result: Trevor Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Trevor Smith at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Trevor Smith has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Trevor Smith
Red Corner
VS
Joe Gigliotti
Blue Corner
+110
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
1379
Elo
1359
45
Age
22
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Trevor SmithL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Andrew Sanchez · Dec 16
W
vs Chris Camozzi · May 17
L
vs Elias Theodorou · May 18
L
vs Zak Cummings · Dec 18
L
KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Dec 19
latest
Joe Gigliotti
oldest →
L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Dec 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Trevor SmithMetricJoe Gigliotti
3.29
Strikes / min
—
3.31
Strikes absorbed / min
—
51%
Strike defense
—
1.70
TDs / 15 min
—
60%
Takedown defense
—
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1507 vs 1500Strikes40.3 vs —Takedowns0.8 vs —Sub Atts0.67 vs —Form0.3 vs 0.0
Trevor SmithJoe Gigliotti

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Trevor Smith(10 fights)Joe Gigliotti(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +19.9|Blue -19.9
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -46.8|Blue +46.8
Grappler Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Trevor Smith

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights12

Joe Gigliotti

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights1