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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Trevor Smith won · U-DEC R3

Elo1379

Elo1360

Trevor SmithvsChris CamozziUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · Sunday, May 28, 2017Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Trevor Smith won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTrevor Smith: Well-roundedvsChris Camozzi: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Trevor Smith wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Trevor Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Trevor Smith at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trevor Smith enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Trevor Smith

Red Corner

Chris Camozzi

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1379

Elo

1360

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Trevor SmithL4 streak

oldest →

DECvs Joe Gigliotti · Aug 16

vs Andrew Sanchez · Dec 16

vs Elias Theodorou · May 18

vs Zak Cummings · Dec 18

KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Dec 19

latest

Chris CamozziL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tom Watson · Aug 15

KOvs Joe Riggs · Feb 16

vs Vitor Miranda · May 16

SUBvs Thales Leites · Aug 16

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Trevor SmithMetricChris Camozzi

3.29

Strikes / min

3.57

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

51%

Strike defense

56%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

0.27

60%

Takedown defense

57%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Trevor SmithChris Camozzi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Trevor Smith(10 fights)Chris Camozzi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.1|Blue -18.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -13.0|Blue +13.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Trevor SmithTargetChris Camozzi

By target zone

56% acc · 56%

Head

46% acc · 60%

100% acc · 36%

Body

75% acc · 30%

43% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

50% acc · 13%

Distance

33% acc · 30%

60% acc · 15%

Clinch

86% acc · 60%

70% acc · 72%

Ground

50% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Trevor Smith rounds

even

Chris Camozzi rounds

Round 1Trevor Smith edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control4:21

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Trevor Smith edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control4:45

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Trevor Smith edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control4:18

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 60

Sig Strikes

10 / 18

62.7%

Sig Str %

51%

92 / 123

Total Strikes

37 / 48

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

13:24

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Camozzi	4 / 6	11 / 13	0 / 0	1
1	Trevor Smith	10 / 19	20 / 30	2 / 2	0
2	Chris Camozzi	1 / 4	2 / 5	0 / 0	0
2	Trevor Smith	20 / 26	43 / 53	1 / 1	0
3	Chris Camozzi	5 / 8	24 / 30	0 / 0	0
3	Trevor Smith	9 / 15	29 / 40	1 / 4	0

Trevor Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Chris Camozzi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19