Middleweight

3 Rounds

Trevor Smith won · S-DEC R3

Elo1379

Elo1353

Trevor SmithvsBrian HoustonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · Wednesday, January 15, 2014Duluth, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Trevor Smith won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Trevor Smith wins(74.3%)

Actual result: Trevor Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Trevor Smith at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Brian Houston has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Trevor Smith

Red Corner

Brian Houston

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1379

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Trevor SmithL3 streak

oldest →

vs Andrew Sanchez · Dec 16

vs Chris Camozzi · May 17

vs Elias Theodorou · May 18

vs Zak Cummings · Dec 18

KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Dec 19

latest

Brian Houston

oldest →

SUBvs Derek Brunson · Nov 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Trevor SmithMetricBrian Houston

3.29

Strikes / min

1.90

3.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.67

51%

Strike defense

53%

1.70

TDs / 15 min

0.95

60%

Takedown defense

87%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.02Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap-1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Trevor SmithBrian Houston

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Trevor Smith(10 fights)Brian Houston(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +25.8|Blue -25.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +102.0|Blue -102.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Trevor SmithTargetBrian Houston

By target zone

31% acc · 47%

Head

28% acc · 67%

73% acc · 19%

Body

60% acc · 10%

95% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

42% acc · 74%

Distance

31% acc · 80%

82% acc · 16%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

60% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Trevor Smith rounds

even

Brian Houston rounds

Round 1Trevor Smith edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:28

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:03

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 3Trevor Smith edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 122

Sig Strikes

30 / 83

49%

Sig Str %

37%

61 / 126

Total Strikes

34 / 87

1 / 8

TDs

1 / 1

16.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:31

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Houston	8 / 19	12 / 23	1 / 1	0
1	Trevor Smith	19 / 32	23 / 36	1 / 2	1
2	Brian Houston	12 / 28	12 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Trevor Smith	15 / 29	15 / 29	0 / 5	0
3	Brian Houston	10 / 36	10 / 36	0 / 0	0
3	Trevor Smith	23 / 61	23 / 61	0 / 1	0

Trevor Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Brian Houston

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights2