← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Yanal Ashmouz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1495

Trevor PeekvsYanal AshmouzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Saturday, September 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Yanal Ashmouz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTrevor Peek: Pressure fightervsYanal Ashmouz: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Yanal Ashmouz wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Yanal Ashmouz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yanal Ashmouz at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Trevor Peek (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Trevor Peek

Red Corner

Yanal Ashmouz

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1492

Elo

1495

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Trevor Peek

oldest →

KOvs Erick Gonzalez · Feb 23

vs Chepe Mariscal · Jun 23

vs Mohammad Yahya · Oct 23

vs Charlie Campbell · Apr 24

latest

Yanal AshmouzL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sam Patterson · Mar 23

vs Chris Duncan · Jul 23

vs Quillan Salkilld · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Trevor PeekMetricYanal Ashmouz

4.39

Strikes / min

2.88

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

4.78

43%

Strike defense

50%

1.45

TDs / 15 min

3.24

52%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51Δ 2.41 — meaningful gap-1.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Trevor PeekYanal Ashmouz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Trevor Peek(5 fights)Yanal Ashmouz(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.0|Blue +3.0

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -259.0|Blue +259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Trevor PeekTargetYanal Ashmouz

By target zone

37% acc · 53%

Head

54% acc · 62%

86% acc · 33%

Body

82% acc · 21%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

48% acc · 87%

Distance

46% acc · 45%

88% acc · 13%

Clinch

90% acc · 43%

Ground

100% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Trevor Peek rounds

even

Yanal Ashmouz rounds

Round 1Trevor Peek edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:04

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:29Control

Round 2Yanal Ashmouz edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:22

10Sig. strikes

6Takedowns

2:41Control

Round 3Yanal Ashmouz edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:04

28Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 107

Sig Strikes

42 / 66

51.7%

Sig Str %

56.3%

63 / 115

Total Strikes

85 / 124

0 / 1

TDs

9 / 18

TD %

44%

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

8:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yanal Ashmouz	4 / 11	12 / 23	1 / 3
1	Trevor Peek	16 / 33	18 / 35	0 / 0
2	Yanal Ashmouz	10 / 16	36 / 48	6 / 9
2	Trevor Peek	22 / 33	23 / 34	0 / 1
3	Yanal Ashmouz	28 / 39	37 / 53	2 / 6
3	Trevor Peek	17 / 41	22 / 46	0 / 0

Trevor Peek

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5

Yanal Ashmouz

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4