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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Charlie Campbell won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1494

Trevor PeekvsCharlie CampbellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Saturday, April 6, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charlie Campbell won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTrevor Peek: Pressure fightervsCharlie Campbell: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Charlie Campbell wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Charlie Campbell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charlie Campbell at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charlie Campbell has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Trevor Peek (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Trevor Peek

Red Corner

Charlie Campbell

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1492

Elo

1494

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Trevor Peek

oldest →

KOvs Erick Gonzalez · Feb 23

vs Chepe Mariscal · Jun 23

vs Mohammad Yahya · Oct 23

vs Yanal Ashmouz · Sep 24

latest

Charlie Campbell

oldest →

KOvs Alex Reyes · Sep 23

SUBvs Tom Nolan · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Trevor PeekMetricCharlie Campbell

4.39

Strikes / min

5.23

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

4.17

43%

Strike defense

55%

1.45

TDs / 15 min

2.45

52%

Takedown defense

62%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51evenly matched on net striking+1.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Trevor PeekCharlie Campbell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Trevor Peek(5 fights)Charlie Campbell(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Trevor PeekTargetCharlie Campbell

By target zone

42% acc · 68%

Head

40% acc · 37%

55% acc · 13%

Body

62% acc · 33%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

76% acc · 30%

By position

42% acc · 72%

Distance

50% acc · 74%

91% acc · 21%

Clinch

72% acc · 24%

60% acc · 6%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Trevor Peek rounds

even

Charlie Campbell rounds

Round 1Charlie Campbell edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:05

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:16

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 3Charlie Campbell edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:54

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 97

Sig Strikes

54 / 100

45%

Sig Str %

47.3%

62 / 118

Total Strikes

100 / 153

2 / 3

TDs

4 / 10

75%

TD %

56.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:15

Ctrl Time

5:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Charlie Campbell	27 / 50	43 / 66	1 / 1
1	Trevor Peek	19 / 41	19 / 43	1 / 2
2	Charlie Campbell	24 / 39	35 / 53	1 / 5
2	Trevor Peek	24 / 45	33 / 58	1 / 1
3	Charlie Campbell	3 / 11	22 / 34	2 / 4
3	Trevor Peek	4 / 11	10 / 17	0 / 0

Trevor Peek

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5

Charlie Campbell

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3