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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gerald Meerschaert won · SUB R3

Elo1490

Elo1457

Trevin GilesvsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · Saturday, August 3, 2019Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Gerald Meerschaert won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:49

Style matchupTrevin Giles: Well-roundedvsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Gerald Meerschaert wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Gerald Meerschaert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gerald Meerschaert at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trevin Giles enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Gerald Meerschaert threatens submissions; Trevin Giles has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Trevin Giles has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Trevin Giles

Red Corner

Gerald Meerschaert

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1490

Elo

1457

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Trevin GilesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Louis Cosce · Sep 22

vs Preston Parsons · Mar 23

SUBvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 23

KOvs Carlos Prates · Feb 24

vs Mike Malott · Nov 24

latest

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Trevin GilesMetricGerald Meerschaert

3.17

Strikes / min

2.95

2.39

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

58%

Strike defense

53%

1.07

TDs / 15 min

1.70

72%

Takedown defense

40%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Trevin GilesGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Trevin Giles(10 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.9|Blue -32.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Trevin GilesTargetGerald Meerschaert

By target zone

62% acc · 100%

Head

19% acc · 50%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

22% acc · 25%

Distance

31% acc · 67%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 63%

Ground

33% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Trevin Giles rounds

even

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

Round 1Trevin Giles edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:22

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:52Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:30

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:07Control

Round 3Gerald Meerschaert edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:26

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:30Control

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 15

Sig Strikes

6 / 19

49.7%

Sig Str %

38.7%

27 / 38

Total Strikes

31 / 55

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

100%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

4:18

Ctrl Time

5:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gerald Meerschaert	2 / 8	15 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Trevin Giles	3 / 6	10 / 13	1 / 1	0
2	Gerald Meerschaert	2 / 8	14 / 27	0 / 1	0
2	Trevin Giles	4 / 6	16 / 22	0 / 0	0
3	Gerald Meerschaert	2 / 3	2 / 3	1 / 2	1
3	Trevin Giles	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0	0

Trevin Giles

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25