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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Prates won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Elo1567

Trevin GilesvsCarlos PratesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Saturday, February 10, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Prates won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:03

Style matchupTrevin Giles: Well-roundedvsCarlos Prates: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Carlos Prates wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Carlos Prates wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Prates at -258 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Prates enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Trevin Giles has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Carlos Prates (52.9%).
Carlos Prates has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Trevin Giles

Red Corner

Carlos Prates

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-258

(72%)

1490

Elo

1567

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Trevin GilesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Morales · Jan 22

vs Louis Cosce · Sep 22

vs Preston Parsons · Mar 23

SUBvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 23

vs Mike Malott · Nov 24

latest

Carlos PratesW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Neil Magny · Nov 24

vs Ian Machado Garry · Apr 25

KOvs Geoff Neal · Aug 25

KOvs Leon Edwards · Nov 25

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Trevin GilesMetricCarlos Prates

3.17

Strikes / min

4.41

2.39

Strikes absorbed / min

4.30

58%

Strike defense

47%

1.07

TDs / 15 min

0.18

72%

Takedown defense

77%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78evenly matched on net striking+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Trevin GilesCarlos Prates

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Trevin Giles(10 fights)Carlos Prates(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -77.9|Blue +77.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Trevin GilesTargetCarlos Prates

By target zone

49% acc · 37%

Head

13% acc · 8%

100% acc · 3%

Body

69% acc · 49%

84% acc · 60%

Leg

73% acc · 43%

By position

67% acc · 99%

Distance

51% acc · 100%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Trevin Giles rounds

even

Carlos Prates rounds

Round 1Trevin Giles edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Trevin Giles edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control1:28

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 102

Sig Strikes

37 / 72

66.5%

Sig Str %

50%

70 / 105

Total Strikes

38 / 73

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:28

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlos Prates	24 / 44	24 / 44	0 / 0
1	Trevin Giles	35 / 55	35 / 55	0 / 0
2	Carlos Prates	13 / 28	14 / 29	0 / 0
2	Trevin Giles	33 / 47	35 / 50	0 / 2

Trevin Giles

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Carlos Prates

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7