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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Marco Tulio won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1506

Elo1485

Tresean GorevsMarco TulioUFC Prediction Result

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Saturday, April 12, 2025Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Marco Tulio won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:16

Style matchupTresean Gore: Submission grapplervsMarco Tulio: Elusive striker

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Marco Tulio wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Marco Tulio wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marco Tulio at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marco Tulio is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Tresean Gore has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Marco Tulio has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tresean Gore has 83pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tresean Gore (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Tresean Gore

Red Corner

Marco Tulio

Blue Corner

+410

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-550

(85%)

1506

Elo

1485

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tresean Gore

oldest →

KOvs Cody Brundage · Jul 22

SUBvs Josh Fremd · Oct 22

SUBvs Antonio Trocoli · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Vieira · Aug 25

SUBvs Azamat Bekoev · Apr 26

latest

Marco TulioL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ihor Potieria · Jan 25

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Nov 25

DECvs Roman Kopylov · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tresean GoreMetricMarco Tulio

3.41

Strikes / min

6.02

7.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

40%

Strike defense

56%

1.91

TDs / 15 min

1.05

83%

Takedown defense

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.59Δ 6.64 — meaningful gap+3.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tresean GoreMarco Tulio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tresean Gore(7 fights)Marco Tulio(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.2|Blue -21.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tresean GoreTargetMarco Tulio

By target zone

21% acc · 59%

Head

62% acc · 58%

60% acc · 18%

Body

95% acc · 31%

50% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

28% acc · 100%

Distance

118

73% acc · 93%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tresean Gore rounds

even

Marco Tulio rounds

Round 1Marco Tulio edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns0

77Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Marco Tulio edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

50Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 60

Sig Strikes

127 / 175

26%

Sig Str %

73%

17 / 60

Total Strikes

140 / 195

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marco Tulio	77 / 110	84 / 117	0 / 0
1	Tresean Gore	13 / 39	13 / 39	0 / 0
2	Marco Tulio	50 / 65	56 / 78	0 / 0
2	Tresean Gore	4 / 21	4 / 21	0 / 0

Tresean Gore

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8

Marco Tulio

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4