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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Travis Browne won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1361

Elo1356

Travis BrownevsMatt MitrioneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz · Sunday, January 17, 2016Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Travis Browne won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:09

Style matchupTravis Browne: Well-roundedvsMatt Mitrione: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Matt Mitrione wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Travis Browne wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Mitrione at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Travis Browne enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Matt Mitrione is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Travis Browne has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Matt Mitrione has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Travis Browne has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Travis Browne

Red Corner

Matt Mitrione

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1361

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'6"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Travis BrowneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andrei Arlovski · May 15

KOvs Cain Velasquez · Jul 16

vs Fabricio Werdum · Sep 16

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 17

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 17

latest

Matt Mitrione

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Schaub · Sep 13

KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14

KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14

SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Travis BrowneMetricMatt Mitrione

2.93

Strikes / min

3.55

4.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.79

42%

Strike defense

64%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

0.00

75%

Takedown defense

55%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.38Δ 2.14 — meaningful gap+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Travis BrowneMatt Mitrione

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Travis Browne(10 fights)Matt Mitrione(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.9|Blue -4.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Travis BrowneTargetMatt Mitrione

By target zone

40% acc · 61%

Head

29% acc · 52%

55% acc · 35%

Body

100% acc · 11%

50% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 37%

By position

32% acc · 45%

Distance

45% acc · 93%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

40% acc · 7%

64% acc · 49%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Travis Browne rounds

even

Matt Mitrione rounds

Round 1Matt Mitrione edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Travis Browne edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:56

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Travis Browne edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control1:51

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 114

Sig Strikes

27 / 61

41.3%

Sig Str %

53.7%

61 / 124

Total Strikes

28 / 62

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:47

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matt Mitrione	8 / 25	9 / 26	0 / 0
1	Travis Browne	8 / 24	8 / 24	0 / 0
2	Matt Mitrione	14 / 30	14 / 30	0 / 1
2	Travis Browne	13 / 34	14 / 35	1 / 1
3	Matt Mitrione	5 / 6	5 / 6	0 / 0
3	Travis Browne	30 / 56	39 / 65	1 / 2

Travis Browne

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights16

Matt Mitrione

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights13