Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Travis Browne won · SUB R1
Elo1361
Travis Browne
Elo1352

Travis BrownevsChad GriggsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · Saturday, April 21, 2012Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Travis Browne won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:29

Model Prediction: Travis Browne wins(74.5%)

Actual result: Travis Browne wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Travis Browne at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Travis Browne enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Travis Browne has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Travis Browne has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Travis Browne
Red Corner
VS
Chad Griggs
Blue Corner
-300
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+270
(27%)
1361
Elo
1352
44
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'6"
Height
6'1"
200.66 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Travis BrowneL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Matt Mitrione · Jan 16
L
KOvs Cain Velasquez · Jul 16
L
vs Fabricio Werdum · Sep 16
L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 17
L
SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 17
latest
Chad Griggs
oldest →
L
SUBvs Cyrille Diabate · Nov 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Travis BrowneMetricChad Griggs
2.93
Strikes / min
2.67
4.31
Strikes absorbed / min
2.22
42%
Strike defense
46%
1.21
TDs / 15 min
1.51
75%
Takedown defense
41%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.38Δ 1.83 — meaningful gap+0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1540 vs 1500Strikes25.8 vs —Takedowns1.5 vs —Sub Atts0.25 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Travis BrowneChad Griggs

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Travis Browne(10 fights)Chad Griggs(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +9.2|Blue -9.2
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Travis BrowneTargetChad Griggs

By target zone

2
40% acc · 50%
Head
0
0% acc
1
50% acc · 25%
Body
0
1
100% acc · 25%
Leg
0

By position

2
40% acc · 50%
Distance
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 50%
Clinch
0
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Travis Browne rounds
0
even
0
Chad Griggs rounds
Round 1Travis Browne edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control1:34
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
4 / 8
Sig Strikes
0 / 3
50%
Sig Str %
0%
7 / 11
Total Strikes
6 / 10
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:34
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chad Griggs0 / 36 / 100 / 00
1Travis Browne4 / 87 / 111 / 21

Travis Browne

StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights16

Chad Griggs

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights2