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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Travis Browne won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1361

Elo1354

Travis BrownevsBrendan SchaubUFC Prediction Result

UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · Saturday, December 6, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Travis Browne won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:50

Style matchupTravis Browne: Well-roundedvsBrendan Schaub: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Brendan Schaub wins(53.0%)

Actual result: Travis Browne wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Schaub at +400 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Travis Browne enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Travis Browne is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Brendan Schaub has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Brendan Schaub is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Travis Browne has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Brendan Schaub has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Travis Browne

Red Corner

Brendan Schaub

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1361

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Travis BrowneL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Jan 16

KOvs Cain Velasquez · Jul 16

vs Fabricio Werdum · Sep 16

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 17

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 17

latest

Brendan Schaub

oldest →

KOvs Minotauro Nogueira · Aug 11

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Apr 12

vs Lavar Johnson · Feb 13

SUBvs Matt Mitrione · Sep 13

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Travis BrowneMetricBrendan Schaub

2.93

Strikes / min

2.92

4.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.22

42%

Strike defense

57%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

2.32

75%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.38Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap+0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Travis BrowneBrendan Schaub

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Travis Browne(10 fights)Brendan Schaub(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Travis BrowneTargetBrendan Schaub

By target zone

67% acc · 96%

Head

50% acc · 60%

100% acc · 4%

Body

33% acc · 20%

Leg

25% acc · 20%

By position

33% acc · 8%

Distance

33% acc · 80%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

73% acc · 88%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Travis Browne rounds

even

Brendan Schaub rounds

Round 1Travis Browne edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control1:41

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 37

Sig Strikes

5 / 13

67%

Sig Str %

38%

36 / 51

Total Strikes

6 / 14

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

100%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

1:41

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brendan Schaub	5 / 13	6 / 14	1 / 3	0
1	Travis Browne	25 / 37	36 / 51	1 / 1	0

Travis Browne

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights16

Brendan Schaub

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10