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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Andrei Arlovski won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1361

Elo1492

Travis BrownevsAndrei ArlovskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · Saturday, May 23, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andrei Arlovski won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:41

Style matchupTravis Browne: Well-roundedvsAndrei Arlovski: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Travis Browne wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Andrei Arlovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Travis Browne at -500 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Travis Browne enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Andrei Arlovski has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Travis Browne

Red Corner

Andrei Arlovski

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1361

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Travis BrowneL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Jan 16

KOvs Cain Velasquez · Jul 16

vs Fabricio Werdum · Sep 16

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 17

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 17

latest

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Travis BrowneMetricAndrei Arlovski

2.93

Strikes / min

3.82

4.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

42%

Strike defense

57%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

0.37

75%

Takedown defense

76%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.38Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Travis BrowneAndrei Arlovski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Travis Browne(10 fights)Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -131.4|Blue +131.4

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Travis BrowneTargetAndrei Arlovski

By target zone

29% acc · 60%

Head

58% acc · 82%

80% acc · 27%

Body

70% acc · 14%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

37% acc · 87%

Distance

47% acc · 39%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

72% acc · 55%

50% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Travis Browne rounds

even

Andrei Arlovski rounds

Round 1Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

51Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 38

Sig Strikes

51 / 85

39%

Sig Str %

60%

15 / 38

Total Strikes

51 / 85

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andrei Arlovski	51 / 85	51 / 85	0 / 0	0
1	Travis Browne	15 / 38	15 / 38	0 / 0	0

Travis Browne

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights16

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27