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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Aleksei Oleinik won · SUB R2

Elo1361

Elo1495

Travis BrownevsAleksei OleinikUFC Prediction Result

UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker · Saturday, July 8, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Aleksei Oleinik won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:44

Style matchupTravis Browne: Well-roundedvsAleksei Oleinik: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Aleksei Oleinik wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Aleksei Oleinik wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksei Oleinik at +245 American odds

+$245 profit

$345 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Travis Browne enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Travis Browne is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Aleksei Oleinik has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Travis Browne has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Travis Browne

Red Corner

Aleksei Oleinik

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1361

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Travis BrowneL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Andrei Arlovski · May 15

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Jan 16

KOvs Cain Velasquez · Jul 16

vs Fabricio Werdum · Sep 16

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 17

latest

Aleksei Oleinik

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21

SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22

vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Travis BrowneMetricAleksei Oleinik

2.93

Strikes / min

3.29

4.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.80

42%

Strike defense

44%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

1.82

75%

Takedown defense

37%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.38evenly matched on net striking-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Travis BrowneAleksei Oleinik

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Travis Browne(10 fights)Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -134.3|Blue +134.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Travis BrowneTargetAleksei Oleinik

By target zone

35% acc · 49%

Head

52% acc · 66%

76% acc · 46%

Body

100% acc · 34%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

42% acc · 71%

Distance

45% acc · 43%

91% acc · 29%

Clinch

89% acc · 30%

0% acc

Ground

88% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Travis Browne rounds

even

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

Round 1Aleksei Oleinik edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

29Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:17Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Aleksei Oleinik edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:13

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 71

Sig Strikes

53 / 85

51%

Sig Str %

63.5%

37 / 74

Total Strikes

132 / 172

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 4

100%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

1:23

Ctrl Time

3:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Aleksei Oleinik	29 / 52	50 / 75	2 / 2	1
1	Travis Browne	24 / 51	24 / 51	0 / 0	0
2	Aleksei Oleinik	24 / 33	82 / 97	1 / 2	1
2	Travis Browne	11 / 20	13 / 23	1 / 1	0

Travis Browne

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights16

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17