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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tracy Cortez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1484

Elo1492

Tracy CortezvsMelissa GattoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 7, 2022Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Tracy Cortez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTracy Cortez: WrestlervsMelissa Gatto: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tracy Cortez wins(50.0%)

Actual result: Tracy Cortez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tracy Cortez at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Melissa Gatto has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tracy Cortez

Red Corner

Melissa Gatto

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1484

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tracy CortezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Sep 23

vs Rose Namajunas · Jul 24

vs Viviane Araujo · Jun 25

SUBvs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 25

DECvs Wang Cong · Jul 26

latest

Melissa Gatto

oldest →

KOvs Victoria Leonardo · Aug 21

KOvs Sijara Eubanks · Dec 21

vs Ariane da Silva · Jul 23

KOvs Tamires Vidal · May 24

DECvs Dione Barbosa · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tracy CortezMetricMelissa Gatto

3.86

Strikes / min

3.47

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

57%

Strike defense

54%

2.15

TDs / 15 min

1.77

59%

Takedown defense

58%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tracy CortezMelissa Gatto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tracy Cortez(9 fights)Melissa Gatto(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.9|Blue +8.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +245.0|Blue -245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tracy CortezTargetMelissa Gatto

By target zone

49% acc · 69%

Head

41% acc · 83%

67% acc · 17%

Body

43% acc · 10%

83% acc · 14%

Leg

40% acc · 7%

By position

38% acc · 39%

Distance

39% acc · 90%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

0% acc

74% acc · 56%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tracy Cortez rounds

even

Melissa Gatto rounds

Round 1Tracy Cortez edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:16

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Melissa Gatto edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:35

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:04Control

Round 3Tracy Cortez edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control3:03

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 66

Sig Strikes

30 / 73

55.3%

Sig Str %

40.3%

70 / 102

Total Strikes

49 / 95

2 / 3

TDs

3 / 6

75%

TD %

38.7%

Sub Att

Rev

7:54

Ctrl Time

3:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Melissa Gatto	7 / 20	14 / 28	1 / 2	0
1	Tracy Cortez	11 / 16	23 / 29	1 / 1	0
2	Melissa Gatto	15 / 35	25 / 47	2 / 3	1
2	Tracy Cortez	9 / 23	20 / 34	0 / 0	0
3	Melissa Gatto	8 / 18	10 / 20	0 / 1	0
3	Tracy Cortez	16 / 27	27 / 39	1 / 2	1

Tracy Cortez

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights9

Melissa Gatto

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6