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Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Tracy Cortez won · S-DEC
Elo1484
Tracy Cortez
Elo1399
Justine Kish

Tracy CortezvsJustine KishUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Saturday, April 17, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tracy Cortez won

S-DEC

Style matchupTracy Cortez: WrestlervsJustine Kish: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tracy Cortez wins(78.7%)

Actual result: Tracy Cortez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tracy Cortez at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Tracy Cortez
Red Corner
VS
Justine Kish
Blue Corner
-325
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+265
(27%)
1484
Elo
1399
32
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'5"
165.1 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tracy CortezL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Sep 23
L
vs Rose Namajunas · Jul 24
W
vs Viviane Araujo · Jun 25
L
SUBvs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 25
L
DECvs Wang Cong · Jul 26
latest
Justine Kish
oldest →
W
vs Ashley Yoder · Dec 16
L
vs Felice Herrig · Jun 17
L
vs Ji Yeon Kim · Jan 18
W
DECvs Luci Pudilova · Jan 20
L
SUBvs Sabina Mazo · Sep 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tracy CortezMetricJustine Kish
3.86
Strikes / min
4.51
3.01
Strikes absorbed / min
4.59
57%
Strike defense
57%
2.15
TDs / 15 min
0.87
59%
Takedown defense
50%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.85evenly matched on net striking-0.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1531 vs 1498Strikes3.9 vs 4.5Takedowns3.0 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.10Form1.0 vs -0.3
Tracy CortezJustine Kish

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Tracy Cortez(9 fights)Justine Kish(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +84.4|Blue -84.4
Recent Form
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score
Red -1.8|Blue +1.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tracy CortezTargetJustine Kish

By target zone

40
51% acc · 61%
Head
30
35% acc · 55%
19
79% acc · 29%
Body
8
57% acc · 15%
7
70% acc · 11%
Leg
17
89% acc · 31%

By position

39
53% acc · 59%
Distance
50
45% acc · 91%
7
100% acc · 11%
Clinch
4
67% acc · 7%
20
63% acc · 30%
Ground
1
50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Tracy Cortez rounds
1
even
1
Justine Kish rounds
Round 1Tracy Cortez edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control4:11
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
Round 2Justine Kish edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control0:53
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns1
Control1:22
Knockdowns0
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
66 / 112
Sig Strikes
55 / 119
59.7%
Sig Str %
50%
84 / 138
Total Strikes
72 / 140
3 / 5
TDs
0 / 1
66.7%
TD %
0%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
6:26
Ctrl Time
0:38

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Justine Kish5 / 812 / 160 / 10
1Tracy Cortez20 / 3034 / 521 / 10
2Justine Kish29 / 5738 / 690 / 00
2Tracy Cortez22 / 4424 / 461 / 20
3Justine Kish21 / 5422 / 550 / 00
3Tracy Cortez24 / 3826 / 401 / 21

Tracy Cortez

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights9

Justine Kish

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights7