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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tracy Cortez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1484

Elo1542

Jasmine Jasudavicius editorial illustration

Tracy CortezvsJasmine JasudaviciusUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Saturday, September 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tracy Cortez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTracy Cortez: WrestlervsJasmine Jasudavicius: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tracy Cortez wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Tracy Cortez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tracy Cortez at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jasmine Jasudavicius has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tracy Cortez

Red Corner

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1484

Elo

1542

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tracy CortezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Melissa Gatto · May 22

vs Rose Namajunas · Jul 24

vs Viviane Araujo · Jun 25

SUBvs Erin Blanchfield · Nov 25

DECvs Wang Cong · Jul 26

latest

Jasmine Jasudavicius

oldest →

SUBvs Ariane da Silva · Nov 24

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Feb 25

SUBvs Jessica Andrade · May 25

KOvs Manon Fiorot · Oct 25

DECvs Karine Silva · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tracy CortezMetricJasmine Jasudavicius

3.86

Strikes / min

3.47

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

57%

Strike defense

51%

2.15

TDs / 15 min

2.63

59%

Takedown defense

75%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tracy CortezJasmine Jasudavicius

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tracy Cortez(9 fights)Jasmine Jasudavicius(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -58.8|Blue +58.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +399.0|Blue -399.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tracy CortezTargetJasmine Jasudavicius

By target zone

38% acc · 61%

Head

29% acc · 56%

70% acc · 16%

Body

53% acc · 32%

96% acc · 23%

Leg

82% acc · 12%

By position

46% acc · 88%

Distance

33% acc · 75%

86% acc · 12%

Clinch

63% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tracy Cortez rounds

even

Jasmine Jasudavicius rounds

Round 1Tracy Cortez edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:17

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:52Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:09

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

103 / 212

Sig Strikes

77 / 206

48%

Sig Str %

36.7%

116 / 225

Total Strikes

95 / 225

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 10

TD %

13.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

3:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jasmine Jasudavicius	24 / 63	25 / 64	0 / 1
1	Tracy Cortez	39 / 75	39 / 75	0 / 0
2	Jasmine Jasudavicius	18 / 56	32 / 71	2 / 5
2	Tracy Cortez	28 / 61	29 / 62	0 / 0
3	Jasmine Jasudavicius	35 / 87	38 / 90	0 / 4
3	Tracy Cortez	36 / 76	48 / 88	0 / 1

Tracy Cortez

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights9

Jasmine Jasudavicius

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11