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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Rinya Nakamura won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1486

Elo1519

Toshiomi KazamavsRinya NakamuraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Saturday, February 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rinya Nakamura won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:33

Style matchupToshiomi Kazama: Submission grapplervsRinya Nakamura: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Rinya Nakamura wins(77.0%)

Actual result: Rinya Nakamura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rinya Nakamura at -600 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rinya Nakamura is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Toshiomi Kazama has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Rinya Nakamura has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rinya Nakamura has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rinya Nakamura (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Toshiomi Kazama

Red Corner

Rinya Nakamura

Blue Corner

+450

(18%)

Vegas Odds

-600

(86%)

1486

Elo

1519

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Toshiomi Kazama

oldest →

KOvs Garrett Armfield · Aug 23

SUBvs Charalampos Grigoriou · Aug 24

KOvs Elijah Smith · Aug 25

latest

Rinya Nakamura

oldest →

vs Fernie Garcia · Aug 23

vs Carlos Vera · Feb 24

vs Muin Gafurov · Jan 25

KOvs Nathan Fletcher · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Toshiomi KazamaMetricRinya Nakamura

1.49

Strikes / min

3.27

4.56

Strikes absorbed / min

1.72

38%

Strike defense

63%

1.94

TDs / 15 min

2.58

66%

Takedown defense

100%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.07Δ 4.62 — meaningful gap+1.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Toshiomi KazamaRinya Nakamura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Toshiomi Kazama(4 fights)Rinya Nakamura(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.2|Blue +33.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Toshiomi KazamaTargetRinya Nakamura

By target zone

40% acc · 100%

Head

44% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

By position

40% acc · 100%

Distance

42% acc · 91%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Toshiomi Kazama rounds

even

Rinya Nakamura rounds

Round 1Rinya Nakamura edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 10

Sig Strikes

11 / 25

40%

Sig Str %

44%

4 / 10

Total Strikes

11 / 25

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rinya Nakamura	11 / 25	11 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Toshiomi Kazama	4 / 10	4 / 10	0 / 0	0

Toshiomi Kazama

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Rinya Nakamura

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5