Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Garrett Armfield won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1486

Elo1493

Toshiomi KazamavsGarrett ArmfieldUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, August 26, 2023Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Garrett Armfield won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:16

Style matchupToshiomi Kazama: Submission grapplervsGarrett Armfield: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Garrett Armfield wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Garrett Armfield wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Garrett Armfield at -162 American odds

+$62 profit

$162 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Garrett Armfield is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Toshiomi Kazama has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Toshiomi Kazama threatens submissions; Garrett Armfield has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Garrett Armfield has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Toshiomi Kazama

Red Corner

Garrett Armfield

Blue Corner

+136

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-162

(62%)

1486

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Toshiomi Kazama

oldest →

KOvs Rinya Nakamura · Feb 23

SUBvs Charalampos Grigoriou · Aug 24

KOvs Elijah Smith · Aug 25

latest

Garrett ArmfieldL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs David Onama · Jul 22

vs Brad Katona · Jan 24

SUBvs Brady Hiestand · Jun 24

vs Serhiy Sidey · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Toshiomi KazamaMetricGarrett Armfield

1.49

Strikes / min

5.35

4.56

Strikes absorbed / min

3.64

38%

Strike defense

56%

1.94

TDs / 15 min

1.10

66%

Takedown defense

64%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.07Δ 4.78 — meaningful gap+1.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Toshiomi KazamaGarrett Armfield

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Toshiomi Kazama(4 fights)Garrett Armfield(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.3|Blue +7.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -210.0|Blue +210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Toshiomi KazamaTargetGarrett Armfield

By target zone

33% acc · 53%

Head

54% acc · 80%

100% acc · 20%

Body

90% acc · 20%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

59% acc · 89%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

56% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Toshiomi Kazama rounds

even

Garrett Armfield rounds

Round 1Garrett Armfield edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 31

Sig Strikes

45 / 77

48%

Sig Str %

58%

15 / 31

Total Strikes

45 / 77

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Garrett Armfield	45 / 77	45 / 77	0 / 0	0
1	Toshiomi Kazama	15 / 31	15 / 31	0 / 2	0

Toshiomi Kazama

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Garrett Armfield

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5