Middleweight

3 Rounds

Trevor Smith won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1379

Tor TroengvsTrevor SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · Saturday, July 19, 2014Dublin, Leinster, Ireland

Official fight result

Trevor Smith won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Trevor Smith wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Trevor Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Trevor Smith at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Trevor Smith has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Tor Troeng

Red Corner

Trevor Smith

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1354

Elo

1379

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tor TroengL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Adam Cella · Apr 13

vs Rafael Natal · Sep 13

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Oct 14

latest

Trevor SmithL3 streak

oldest →

vs Andrew Sanchez · Dec 16

vs Chris Camozzi · May 17

vs Elias Theodorou · May 18

vs Zak Cummings · Dec 18

KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tor TroengMetricTrevor Smith

1.16

Strikes / min

3.29

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

32%

Strike defense

51%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

1.70

66%

Takedown defense

60%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.10Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap-0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tor TroengTrevor Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tor Troeng(4 fights)Trevor Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.9|Blue +24.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -3.1|Blue +3.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +219.0|Blue -219.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tor TroengTargetTrevor Smith

By target zone

42% acc · 50%

Head

57% acc · 40%

92% acc · 42%

Body

76% acc · 31%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

44% acc · 54%

Distance

54% acc · 36%

92% acc · 46%

Clinch

79% acc · 26%

Ground

94% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tor Troeng rounds

even

Trevor Smith rounds

Round 1Tor Troeng edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control2:25

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 2Trevor Smith edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control1:44

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:35Control

Round 3Trevor Smith edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:17

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 45

Sig Strikes

42 / 59

54.7%

Sig Str %

76%

42 / 63

Total Strikes

89 / 110

1 / 5

TDs

2 / 5

16.7%

TD %

41.5%

Sub Att

Rev

4:26

Ctrl Time

7:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Trevor Smith	18 / 31	20 / 33	1 / 2	0
1	Tor Troeng	18 / 30	24 / 36	1 / 2	0
2	Trevor Smith	11 / 13	39 / 43	0 / 0	2
2	Tor Troeng	6 / 11	12 / 19	0 / 1	0
3	Trevor Smith	13 / 15	30 / 34	1 / 3	0
3	Tor Troeng	2 / 4	6 / 8	0 / 2	0

Tor Troeng

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights4

Trevor Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12