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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Krzysztof Jotko won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1496

Tor TroengvsKrzysztof JotkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · Saturday, October 4, 2014Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Krzysztof Jotko won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Krzysztof Jotko wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Krzysztof Jotko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Krzysztof Jotko at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tor Troeng threatens submissions; Krzysztof Jotko has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Krzysztof Jotko has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Krzysztof Jotko has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Krzysztof Jotko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tor Troeng

Red Corner

Krzysztof Jotko

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1354

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tor TroengL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Adam Cella · Apr 13

vs Rafael Natal · Sep 13

vs Trevor Smith · Jul 14

latest

Krzysztof Jotko

oldest →

vs Eryk Anders · May 20

vs Sean Strickland · May 21

vs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 21

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 22

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tor TroengMetricKrzysztof Jotko

1.16

Strikes / min

2.98

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

32%

Strike defense

57%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

1.33

66%

Takedown defense

82%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.10Δ 2.85 — meaningful gap+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tor TroengKrzysztof Jotko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tor Troeng(4 fights)Krzysztof Jotko(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -142.4|Blue +142.4

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tor TroengTargetKrzysztof Jotko

By target zone

16% acc · 40%

Head

57% acc · 41%

80% acc · 27%

Body

97% acc · 42%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

17% acc · 40%

Distance

50% acc · 24%

82% acc · 60%

Clinch

91% acc · 70%

Ground

80% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tor Troeng rounds

even

Krzysztof Jotko rounds

Round 1Krzysztof Jotko edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control2:04

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 2Krzysztof Jotko edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:33

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:21Control

Round 3Krzysztof Jotko edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:35

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 47

Sig Strikes

74 / 98

31.7%

Sig Str %

74.3%

26 / 60

Total Strikes

132 / 159

0 / 19

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

4:12

Ctrl Time

3:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Krzysztof Jotko	20 / 28	44 / 53	0 / 0
1	Tor Troeng	7 / 16	13 / 22	0 / 10
2	Krzysztof Jotko	36 / 45	59 / 70	0 / 0
2	Tor Troeng	4 / 18	9 / 23	0 / 4
3	Krzysztof Jotko	18 / 25	29 / 36	1 / 2
3	Tor Troeng	4 / 13	4 / 15	0 / 5

Tor Troeng

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights4

Krzysztof Jotko

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16