Middleweight

3 Rounds

Tor Troeng won · SUB R1

Elo1354

Elo1490

Tor TroengvsAdam CellaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · Saturday, April 6, 2013Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Tor Troeng won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:11

Model Prediction: Tor Troeng wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Tor Troeng wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tor Troeng at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tor Troeng enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Adam Cella has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tor Troeng has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tor Troeng

Red Corner

Adam Cella

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1354

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tor TroengL3 streak

oldest →

vs Rafael Natal · Sep 13

vs Trevor Smith · Jul 14

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Oct 14

latest

Adam CellaNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tor TroengMetricAdam Cella

1.16

Strikes / min

1.91

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

32%

Strike defense

51%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

3.92

66%

Takedown defense

50%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.10Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap-0.70

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tor Troeng(4 fights)Adam Cella(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.5|Blue +136.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tor TroengTargetAdam Cella

By target zone

63% acc · 83%

Head

13% acc · 50%

0% acc

Body

0% acc

50% acc · 17%

Leg

50% acc · 50%

By position

29% acc · 33%

Distance

17% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 67%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tor Troeng rounds

even

Adam Cella rounds

Round 1Tor Troeng edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:21

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 11

Sig Strikes

2 / 12

54%

Sig Str %

16%

16 / 23

Total Strikes

4 / 14

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:21

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Adam Cella	2 / 12	4 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Tor Troeng	6 / 11	16 / 23	1 / 1	1

Tor Troeng

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights4

Adam Cella

Stance—

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights1