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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Tony Gravely won · U-DEC R3

Elo1455

Elo1457

Tony GravelyvsSaimon OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Saturday, January 22, 2022Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Tony Gravely won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTony Gravely: WrestlervsSaimon Oliveira: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Tony Gravely wins(67.1%)

Actual result: Tony Gravely wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Gravely at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Saimon Oliveira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tony Gravely is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Saimon Oliveira has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Tony Gravely has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Gravely

Red Corner

Saimon Oliveira

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1455

Elo

1457

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony GravelyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Birchak · Apr 21

KOvs Nate Maness · Sep 21

KOvs Johnny Munoz · Jun 22

vs Javid Basharat · Sep 22

vs Victor Henry · Mar 23

latest

Saimon OliveiraL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Marcos · Jan 23

KOvs David Martinez · Mar 25

SUBvs Luan Lacerda · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony GravelyMetricSaimon Oliveira

3.82

Strikes / min

2.62

4.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.87

44%

Strike defense

45%

5.40

TDs / 15 min

1.18

52%

Takedown defense

36%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.65evenly matched on net striking-1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony GravelySaimon Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Gravely(8 fights)Saimon Oliveira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony GravelyTargetSaimon Oliveira

By target zone

41% acc · 78%

Head

40% acc · 60%

67% acc · 9%

Body

69% acc · 26%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

48% acc · 52%

Distance

44% acc · 77%

57% acc · 9%

Clinch

89% acc · 23%

43% acc · 39%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Gravely rounds

even

Saimon Oliveira rounds

Round 1Tony Gravely edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control4:31

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Tony Gravely edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns4

Control3:33

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Tony Gravely edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns5

Control3:24

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 99

Sig Strikes

35 / 71

43%

Sig Str %

54.7%

66 / 132

Total Strikes

50 / 87

11 / 15

TDs

0 / 0

73.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:28

Ctrl Time

0:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Saimon Oliveira	4 / 6	5 / 7	0 / 0	2
1	Tony Gravely	5 / 21	14 / 36	2 / 5	0
2	Saimon Oliveira	18 / 29	21 / 33	0 / 0	0
2	Tony Gravely	20 / 44	25 / 51	4 / 5	0
3	Saimon Oliveira	13 / 36	24 / 47	0 / 0	2
3	Tony Gravely	21 / 34	27 / 45	5 / 5	0

Tony Gravely

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8

Saimon Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4