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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Javid Basharat won · U-DEC R3
Elo1455
Elo1503
Javid Basharat

Tony GravelyvsJavid BasharatUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Saturday, September 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Javid Basharat won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTony Gravely: WrestlervsJavid Basharat: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Tony Gravely wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Javid Basharat wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Gravely at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tony Gravely is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Javid Basharat has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Javid Basharat has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Javid Basharat has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Gravely
Red Corner
VS
Javid Basharat
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-165
(62%)
1455
Elo
1503
34
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'9"
175.26 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony Gravely
oldest →
W
KOvs Anthony Birchak · Apr 21
L
KOvs Nate Maness · Sep 21
W
vs Saimon Oliveira · Jan 22
W
KOvs Johnny Munoz · Jun 22
L
vs Victor Henry · Mar 23
latest
Javid Basharat
oldest →
W
vs Trevin Jones · Mar 22
W
vs Mateus Mendonca · Jan 23
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · Mar 24
L
KOvs Ricky Simon · Feb 25
W
vs Gianni Vazquez · Feb 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony GravelyMetricJavid Basharat
3.82
Strikes / min
5.18
4.47
Strikes absorbed / min
2.75
44%
Strike defense
63%
5.40
TDs / 15 min
1.83
52%
Takedown defense
83%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.65Δ 3.08 — meaningful gap+2.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1532 vs 1517Strikes3.8 vs 5.4Takedowns5.4 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.20Form0.6 vs 1.0
Tony GravelyJavid Basharat

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Tony Gravely(8 fights)Javid Basharat(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -48.1|Blue +48.1
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red -84.0|Blue +84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony GravelyTargetJavid Basharat

By target zone

17
20% acc · 52%
Head
50
44% acc · 63%
2
18% acc · 6%
Body
24
80% acc · 30%
14
78% acc · 42%
Leg
6
100% acc · 8%

By position

30
28% acc · 91%
Distance
69
51% acc · 86%
3
43% acc · 9%
Clinch
6
60% acc · 8%
0
Ground
5
100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Tony Gravely rounds
0
even
2
Javid Basharat rounds
Round 1Tony Gravely edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns2
Control1:12
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:20Control
Round 2Javid Basharat edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:27
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:42Control
Round 3Javid Basharat edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:04
42Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:11Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
33 / 113
Sig Strikes
80 / 149
27.7%
Sig Str %
55%
39 / 119
Total Strikes
106 / 177
2 / 13
TDs
2 / 4
16.7%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:43
Ctrl Time
3:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Javid Basharat17 / 3624 / 431 / 10
1Tony Gravely15 / 4215 / 422 / 40
2Javid Basharat21 / 3140 / 521 / 20
2Tony Gravely5 / 2211 / 280 / 50
3Javid Basharat42 / 8242 / 820 / 10
3Tony Gravely13 / 4913 / 490 / 40

Tony Gravely

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights8

Javid Basharat

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6