Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Tony Gravely won · KO/TKO

Elo1455

Elo1399

Tony GravelyvsAnthony BirchakUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Saturday, April 17, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tony Gravely won

KO/TKO

Style matchupTony Gravely: WrestlervsAnthony Birchak: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tony Gravely wins(86.6%)

Actual result: Tony Gravely wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Gravely at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Gravely is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Anthony Birchak has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Anthony Birchak has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Gravely

Red Corner

Anthony Birchak

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1455

Elo

1399

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony GravelyL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Maness · Sep 21

vs Saimon Oliveira · Jan 22

KOvs Johnny Munoz · Jun 22

vs Javid Basharat · Sep 22

vs Victor Henry · Mar 23

latest

Anthony Birchak

oldest →

SUBvs Ian Entwistle · Dec 14

KOvs Joe Soto · Jun 15

KOvs Thomas Almeida · Nov 15

vs Dileno Lopes · Jul 16

SUBvs Gustavo Lopez · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony GravelyMetricAnthony Birchak

3.82

Strikes / min

3.93

4.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.67

44%

Strike defense

56%

5.40

TDs / 15 min

0.48

52%

Takedown defense

61%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.65evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony GravelyAnthony Birchak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Gravely(8 fights)Anthony Birchak(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +56.2|Blue -56.2

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony GravelyTargetAnthony Birchak

By target zone

48% acc · 79%

Head

32% acc · 61%

83% acc · 13%

Body

50% acc · 22%

75% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

52% acc · 44%

Distance

31% acc · 61%

20% acc · 3%

Clinch

60% acc · 17%

57% acc · 54%

Ground

100% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Gravely rounds

even

Anthony Birchak rounds

Round 1Tony Gravely edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns3

Control3:20

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Tony Gravely edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:14

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 75

Sig Strikes

18 / 45

59.5%

Sig Str %

40%

61 / 105

Total Strikes

30 / 59

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

80%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:34

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Birchak	14 / 35	26 / 49	0 / 1	1
1	Tony Gravely	32 / 65	50 / 88	3 / 5	0
2	Anthony Birchak	4 / 10	4 / 10	0 / 0	0
2	Tony Gravely	7 / 10	11 / 17	1 / 1	0

Tony Gravely

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8

Anthony Birchak

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6