Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tony Ferguson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1354

Tony FergusonvsYves EdwardsUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller Finale · Saturday, December 3, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tony Ferguson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsYves Edwards: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Ferguson at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Yves Edwards enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Yves Edwards has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Yves Edwards has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Yves Edwards (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson

Red Corner

Yves Edwards

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+318

(24%)

1485

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'9"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Yves EdwardsL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Dec 12

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Feb 13

vs Daron Cruickshank · Jul 13

SUBvs Piotr Hallmann · Jun 14

SUBvs Akbarh Arreola · Nov 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricYves Edwards

4.91

Strikes / min

2.91

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

2.34

55%

Strike defense

66%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

0.76

66%

Takedown defense

69%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony FergusonYves Edwards

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Yves Edwards(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +131.2|Blue -131.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetYves Edwards

By target zone

19% acc · 62%

Head

25% acc · 62%

60% acc · 10%

Body

30% acc · 16%

74% acc · 28%

Leg

77% acc · 22%

By position

25% acc · 89%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

54% acc · 11%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Ferguson rounds

even

Yves Edwards rounds

Round 1Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:10

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Yves Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 232

Sig Strikes

45 / 150

26.3%

Sig Str %

29.3%

62 / 234

Total Strikes

45 / 150

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 3

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yves Edwards	14 / 49	14 / 49	0 / 1	0
1	Tony Ferguson	28 / 92	29 / 94	0 / 0	1
2	Yves Edwards	14 / 46	14 / 46	0 / 1	0
2	Tony Ferguson	20 / 58	20 / 58	1 / 1	0
3	Yves Edwards	17 / 55	17 / 55	0 / 1	0
3	Tony Ferguson	13 / 82	13 / 82	0 / 0	0

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Yves Edwards

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10