Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tony Ferguson won · SUB R1

Elo1485

Elo1353

Tony FergusonvsMike RioUFC Prediction Result

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · Saturday, October 19, 2013Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Tony Ferguson won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:52

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsMike Rio: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Ferguson at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Mike Rio has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Mike Rio threatens submissions; Tony Ferguson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Tony Ferguson has 66pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tony Ferguson has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson

Red Corner

Mike Rio

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+375

(21%)

1485

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Mike RioL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs John Cofer · Dec 12

SUBvs Francisco Trinaldo · May 13

KOvs Daron Cruickshank · Jan 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricMike Rio

4.91

Strikes / min

1.68

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

55%

Strike defense

53%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

2.58

66%

Takedown defense

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54Δ 1.85 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony FergusonMike Rio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Mike Rio(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.3|Blue -132.3

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +378.0|Blue -378.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetMike Rio

By target zone

23% acc · 60%

Head

43% acc · 75%

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

29% acc · 80%

Distance

43% acc · 75%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Ferguson rounds

even

Mike Rio rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:18

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 15

Sig Strikes

4 / 8

33%

Sig Str %

50%

7 / 18

Total Strikes

4 / 8

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Rio	4 / 8	4 / 8	0 / 2	0
1	Tony Ferguson	5 / 15	7 / 18	0 / 0	1

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Mike Rio

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4