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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Johnson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1502

Tony FergusonvsMichael JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · Saturday, May 5, 2012East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Michael Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsMichael Johnson: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(80.4%)

Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Ferguson at -315 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Michael Johnson has lost 31% of fights by sub.
Michael Johnson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson

Red Corner

Michael Johnson

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1485

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricMichael Johnson

4.91

Strikes / min

4.27

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

55%

Strike defense

58%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

0.57

66%

Takedown defense

81%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony FergusonMichael Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Michael Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.4|Blue +17.4

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetMichael Johnson

By target zone

16% acc · 51%

Head

24% acc · 42%

47% acc · 16%

Body

50% acc · 33%

83% acc · 33%

Leg

81% acc · 25%

By position

26% acc · 100%

Distance

36% acc · 99%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Ferguson rounds

even

Michael Johnson rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 176

Sig Strikes

67 / 183

25%

Sig Str %

36.3%

45 / 176

Total Strikes

67 / 183

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Johnson	25 / 54	25 / 54	0 / 0
1	Tony Ferguson	11 / 54	11 / 54	0 / 0
2	Michael Johnson	15 / 54	15 / 54	0 / 1
2	Tony Ferguson	17 / 62	17 / 62	0 / 0
3	Michael Johnson	27 / 75	27 / 75	0 / 1
3	Tony Ferguson	17 / 60	17 / 60	0 / 1

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32