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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Chiesa won · SUB R1

Elo1485

Elo1529

Tony FergusonvsMichael ChiesaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Saturday, August 3, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Michael Chiesa won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:44

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsMichael Chiesa: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Chiesa at -540 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Michael Chiesa has lost 71% of fights by sub.
Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Tony Ferguson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson

Red Corner

Michael Chiesa

Blue Corner

+360

(22%)

Vegas Odds

-540

(84%)

1485

Elo

1529

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

vs Beneil Dariush · May 21

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

latest

Michael ChiesaW3 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Brady · Nov 21

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricMichael Chiesa

4.91

Strikes / min

2.02

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

1.73

55%

Strike defense

57%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

3.11

66%

Takedown defense

65%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony FergusonMichael Chiesa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Michael Chiesa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -43.8|Blue +43.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetMichael Chiesa

By target zone

44% acc · 40%

Head

13% acc · 75%

33% acc · 10%

Body

50% acc · 25%

83% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

56% acc · 100%

Distance

16% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Ferguson rounds

even

Michael Chiesa rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:34Control

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 18

Sig Strikes

4 / 25

55%

Sig Str %

16%

10 / 18

Total Strikes

4 / 25

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Chiesa	4 / 25	4 / 25	1 / 1	1
1	Tony Ferguson	10 / 18	10 / 18	0 / 0	0

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22