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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tony Ferguson won · SUB R2

Elo1485

Elo1478

Tony FergusonvsLando VannataUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker · Wednesday, July 13, 2016Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA

Official fight result

Tony Ferguson won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:22

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsLando Vannata: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(79.3%)

Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Ferguson at -800 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Lando Vannata enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tony Ferguson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson

Red Corner

Lando Vannata

Blue Corner

-800

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+550

(15%)

1485

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

193.04 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Lando VannataL3 streak

oldest →

vs Bobby Green · Aug 20

vs Mike Grundy · May 21

SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Apr 22

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Apr 23

KOvs Darrius Flowers · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricLando Vannata

4.91

Strikes / min

4.52

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

4.71

55%

Strike defense

54%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

1.24

66%

Takedown defense

66%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony FergusonLando Vannata

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Lando Vannata(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.5|Blue -7.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetLando Vannata

By target zone

46% acc · 64%

Head

32% acc · 65%

85% acc · 26%

Body

50% acc · 23%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

50% acc · 13%

By position

55% acc · 100%

Distance

35% acc · 85%

Clinch

33% acc · 5%

Ground

50% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Ferguson rounds

even

Lando Vannata rounds

Round 1Lando Vannata edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 119

Sig Strikes

40 / 110

54.5%

Sig Str %

31%

69 / 122

Total Strikes

42 / 112

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lando Vannata	34 / 82	36 / 84	0 / 2	0
1	Tony Ferguson	41 / 72	44 / 75	0 / 0	1
2	Lando Vannata	6 / 28	6 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Tony Ferguson	25 / 47	25 / 47	0 / 0	2

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Lando Vannata

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12