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Lightweight

3 Rounds

King Green won · SUB R3

Elo1485

Elo1568

Tony FergusonvsKing GreenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Saturday, July 29, 2023Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

King Green won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:54

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsKing Green: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: King Green wins(69.1%)

Actual result: King Green wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
King Green enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; King Green has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Tony Ferguson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson

Red Corner

King Green

Blue Corner

+290

(26%)

Vegas Odds

—

1485

Elo

1568

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

vs Beneil Dariush · May 21

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

King GreenW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Mar 25

vs Lance Gibson Jr. · Dec 25

KOvs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 26

SUBvs Jeremy Stephens · May 26

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricKing Green

4.91

Strikes / min

6.46

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

3.55

55%

Strike defense

62%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

1.33

66%

Takedown defense

72%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54Δ 2.37 — meaningful gap+2.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony FergusonKing Green

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Ferguson(10 fights)King Green(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -83.2|Blue +83.2

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -48.2|Blue +48.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetKing Green

By target zone

39% acc · 70%

Head

57% acc · 69%

61% acc · 20%

Body

77% acc · 18%

71% acc · 9%

Leg

90% acc · 13%

By position

42% acc · 93%

Distance

115

63% acc · 84%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

67% acc · 4%

Ground

64% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Ferguson rounds

even

King Green rounds

Round 1King Green edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:13

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2King Green edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

49Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:36Control

Round 3King Green edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

48Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 123

Sig Strikes

137 / 217

43.3%

Sig Str %

62.7%

62 / 138

Total Strikes

145 / 227

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

3:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	King Green	40 / 72	40 / 72	0 / 0	0
1	Tony Ferguson	14 / 42	15 / 43	0 / 1	0
2	King Green	49 / 77	57 / 87	0 / 0	0
2	Tony Ferguson	16 / 36	23 / 48	0 / 2	0
3	King Green	48 / 68	48 / 68	0 / 0	1
3	Tony Ferguson	24 / 45	24 / 47	0 / 0	0

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

King Green

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10