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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Tony Ferguson won · SUB R3

Elo1485

Elo1466

Tony FergusonvsKevin LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · Saturday, October 7, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tony Ferguson won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:02

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsKevin Lee: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Ferguson at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Kevin Lee has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson

Red Corner

Kevin Lee

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1485

Elo

1466

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

193.04 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Kevin LeeL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricKevin Lee

4.91

Strikes / min

3.88

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

3.60

55%

Strike defense

50%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

3.18

66%

Takedown defense

75%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony FergusonKevin Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.1|Blue -19.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +232.0|Blue -232.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetKevin Lee

By target zone

49% acc · 74%

Head

41% acc · 75%

46% acc · 11%

Body

78% acc · 25%

89% acc · 15%

Leg

By position

47% acc · 74%

Distance

39% acc · 64%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

76% acc · 24%

Ground

71% acc · 36%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Ferguson rounds

even

Kevin Lee rounds

Round 1Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:02

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:16Control

Round 2Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:33Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 103

Sig Strikes

55 / 119

53%

Sig Str %

46.7%

57 / 106

Total Strikes

71 / 137

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 6

—

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

4:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Lee	27 / 58	38 / 69	1 / 1	0
1	Tony Ferguson	13 / 23	14 / 24	0 / 0	0
2	Kevin Lee	22 / 49	22 / 49	0 / 2	0
2	Tony Ferguson	27 / 54	27 / 54	0 / 0	0
3	Kevin Lee	6 / 12	11 / 19	2 / 3	0
3	Tony Ferguson	14 / 26	16 / 28	0 / 0	2

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19