Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tony Ferguson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1485

Elo1355

Tony FergusonvsKatsunori KikunoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · Saturday, May 24, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tony Ferguson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:06

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsKatsunori Kikuno: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Ferguson at -315 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Katsunori Kikuno threatens submissions; Tony Ferguson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Tony Ferguson has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson

Red Corner

Katsunori Kikuno

Blue Corner

-315

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1485

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

193.04 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Katsunori KikunoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Quinn Mulhern · Jan 14

SUBvs Sam Sicilia · Sep 14

KOvs Kevin Souza · Mar 15

KOvs Diego Brandao · Sep 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricKatsunori Kikuno

4.91

Strikes / min

2.64

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

2.47

55%

Strike defense

61%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

1.88

66%

Takedown defense

76%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony FergusonKatsunori Kikuno

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Katsunori Kikuno(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +129.7|Blue -129.7

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetKatsunori Kikuno

By target zone

56% acc · 92%

Head

46% acc · 77%

50% acc · 3%

Body

80% acc · 18%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

50% acc · 5%

By position

56% acc · 97%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Ferguson rounds

even

Katsunori Kikuno rounds

Round 1Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns1

Control0:37

Knockdowns1

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 67

Sig Strikes

22 / 44

56%

Sig Str %

50%

40 / 69

Total Strikes

23 / 46

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:37

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Katsunori Kikuno	22 / 44	23 / 46	0 / 0	0
1	Tony Ferguson	38 / 67	40 / 69	1 / 2	1

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Katsunori Kikuno

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights5