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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Justin Gaethje won · KO/TKO R5
Elo1485
Elo1541
Justin Gaethje

Tony FergusonvsJustin GaethjeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 9, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Justin Gaethje won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 3:39

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(54.3%)

Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Gaethje at +158 American odds

+$158 profit

$258 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Justin Gaethje has lost 40% of fights by sub.
  • Tony Ferguson has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Justin Gaethje
Blue Corner
-180
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+158
(39%)
1485
Elo
1541
42
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22
L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22
L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23
L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23
L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24
latest
Justin GaethjeW3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23
L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25
W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26
W
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricJustin Gaethje
4.91
Strikes / min
6.48
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
7.05
55%
Strike defense
51%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
0.33
66%
Takedown defense
74%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1721 vs 1566Strikes5.8 vs 8.6Takedowns0.6 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.40 vs 0.00Form1.1 vs 0.7
Tony FergusonJustin Gaethje

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701493151515381560← oldermost recent →
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -55.5|Blue +55.5
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -2.3|Blue +2.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetJustin Gaethje

By target zone

64
30% acc · 47%
Head
100
65% acc · 70%
36
84% acc · 26%
Body
13
93% acc · 9%
36
88% acc · 26%
Leg
30
100% acc · 21%

By position

136
46% acc · 100%
Distance
143
73% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Tony Ferguson rounds
0
even
2
Justin Gaethje rounds
Round 1Tony Ferguson edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control0:00
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Tony Ferguson edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Tony Ferguson edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Justin Gaethje edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
136 / 296
Sig Strikes
143 / 197
45%
Sig Str %
72%
136 / 296
Total Strikes
143 / 197
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Justin Gaethje26 / 3726 / 370 / 00
1Tony Ferguson29 / 5429 / 540 / 00
2Justin Gaethje37 / 5037 / 500 / 00
2Tony Ferguson33 / 6433 / 640 / 00
3Justin Gaethje20 / 3520 / 350 / 00
3Tony Ferguson24 / 6924 / 690 / 00
4Tony Ferguson36 / 7336 / 730 / 00
4Justin Gaethje26 / 3626 / 360 / 00
5Justin Gaethje34 / 3934 / 390 / 00
5Tony Ferguson14 / 3614 / 360 / 00

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15