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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tony Ferguson won · SUB R1
Elo1485
Elo1366
Gleison Tibau

Tony FergusonvsGleison TibauUFC Prediction Result

UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · Saturday, February 28, 2015Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Tony Ferguson won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:37

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsGleison Tibau: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Ferguson at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Gleison Tibau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Gleison Tibau has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Gleison Tibau (53.5%).
  • Tony Ferguson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Gleison Tibau
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
1485
Elo
1366
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22
L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22
L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23
L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23
L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24
latest
Gleison TibauL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Piotr Hallmann · Sep 14
W
vs Norman Parke · Jan 15
L
vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15
L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18
L
vs Desmond Green · Jun 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricGleison Tibau
4.91
Strikes / min
1.95
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
2.51
55%
Strike defense
63%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
4.08
66%
Takedown defense
92%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1602 vs 1592Strikes30.5 vs 23.6Takedowns0.6 vs 3.4Sub Atts0.63 vs 0.67Form1.0 vs 0.8
Tony FergusonGleison Tibau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Gleison Tibau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +119.4|Blue -119.4
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red +43.0|Blue -43.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetGleison Tibau

By target zone

5
19% acc · 45%
Head
2
11% acc · 100%
3
43% acc · 27%
Body
0
0% acc
3
75% acc · 27%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

8
27% acc · 73%
Distance
2
10% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
3
38% acc · 27%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Tony Ferguson rounds
0
even
0
Gleison Tibau rounds
Round 1Tony Ferguson edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control0:46
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
11 / 38
Sig Strikes
2 / 20
28%
Sig Str %
10%
17 / 45
Total Strikes
2 / 20
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
100%
TD %
0%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:46
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gleison Tibau2 / 202 / 200 / 10
1Tony Ferguson11 / 3817 / 451 / 12

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24

Gleison Tibau

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights18