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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tony Ferguson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1485

Elo1429

Tony FergusonvsDonald CerroneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Saturday, June 8, 2019Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Tony Ferguson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(70.3%)

Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Ferguson at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson

Red Corner

Donald Cerrone

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1485

Elo

1429

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricDonald Cerrone

4.91

Strikes / min

4.41

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

4.48

55%

Strike defense

53%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

1.16

66%

Takedown defense

73%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony FergusonDonald Cerrone

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +56.4|Blue -56.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +210.0|Blue -210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetDonald Cerrone

By target zone

45% acc · 63%

Head

28% acc · 63%

68% acc · 24%

Body

65% acc · 22%

74% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

103

52% acc · 99%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Ferguson rounds

even

Donald Cerrone rounds

Round 1Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes52

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes52

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

104 / 200

Sig Strikes

68 / 185

52%

Sig Str %

36.5%

104 / 200

Total Strikes

68 / 185

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Donald Cerrone	38 / 95	38 / 95	0 / 0
1	Tony Ferguson	52 / 104	52 / 104	0 / 0
2	Donald Cerrone	30 / 90	30 / 90	1 / 1
2	Tony Ferguson	52 / 96	52 / 96	0 / 0

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37