Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tony Ferguson won · S-DEC R3

Elo1485

Elo1356

Tony FergusonvsDanny CastilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · Saturday, August 30, 2014Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Tony Ferguson won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsDanny Castillo: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(53.6%)

Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Castillo at +245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Danny Castillo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tony Ferguson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson

Red Corner

Danny Castillo

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1485

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

193.04 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Danny CastilloL3 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 13

KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14

KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15

vs Jim Miller · Jul 15

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricDanny Castillo

4.91

Strikes / min

2.57

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

1.96

55%

Strike defense

62%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

2.95

66%

Takedown defense

63%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony FergusonDanny Castillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +129.2|Blue -129.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetDanny Castillo

By target zone

16% acc · 43%

Head

23% acc · 100%

100% acc · 13%

Body

0% acc

67% acc · 43%

Leg

By position

29% acc · 96%

Distance

22% acc · 91%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

20% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Ferguson rounds

even

Danny Castillo rounds

Round 1Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:02

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:31Control

Round 2Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:05

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:32Control

Round 3Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

0Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:26Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 80

Sig Strikes

23 / 105

25.7%

Sig Str %

16.3%

71 / 130

Total Strikes

30 / 114

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 8

—

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

9:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Danny Castillo	11 / 48	11 / 48	0 / 2	0
1	Tony Ferguson	11 / 33	18 / 40	0 / 0	1
2	Danny Castillo	12 / 44	15 / 48	0 / 3	0
2	Tony Ferguson	10 / 32	35 / 57	0 / 0	0
3	Danny Castillo	0 / 13	4 / 18	2 / 3	1
3	Tony Ferguson	2 / 15	18 / 33	0 / 0	0

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Danny Castillo

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14