Lightweight

3 Rounds

Charles Oliveira won · U-DEC

Elo1485

Elo1521

Tony FergusonvsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Saturday, December 12, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

U-DEC

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Charles Oliveira wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charles Oliveira at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Charles Oliveira has lost 36% of fights by sub.
Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Tony Ferguson has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson

Red Corner

Charles Oliveira

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1485

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricCharles Oliveira

4.91

Strikes / min

3.23

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

55%

Strike defense

48%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

2.29

66%

Takedown defense

54%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony FergusonCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.2|Blue +36.2

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

48% acc · 74%

Head

60% acc · 63%

30% acc · 16%

Body

64% acc · 17%

67% acc · 11%

Leg

89% acc · 20%

By position

39% acc · 79%

Distance

50% acc · 41%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 16%

Ground

83% acc · 59%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Ferguson rounds

even

Charles Oliveira rounds

Round 1Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:35Control

Round 2Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:05Control

Round 3Charles Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:05

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 42

Sig Strikes

41 / 63

51.7%

Sig Str %

66.7%

26 / 49

Total Strikes

86 / 112

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

11:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Oliveira	16 / 28	28 / 43	1 / 1	2
1	Tony Ferguson	11 / 29	11 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Charles Oliveira	12 / 16	34 / 38	1 / 1	0
2	Tony Ferguson	6 / 7	11 / 12	0 / 0	0
3	Charles Oliveira	13 / 19	24 / 31	1 / 1	1
3	Tony Ferguson	2 / 6	4 / 8	0 / 0	0

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36