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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Beneil Dariush won · U-DEC

Elo1485

Elo1480

Tony FergusonvsBeneil DariushUFC Prediction Result

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · Saturday, May 15, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Beneil Dariush won

U-DEC

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsBeneil Dariush: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Beneil Dariush wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Beneil Dariush wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Beneil Dariush at -147 American odds

+$68 profit

$168 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Beneil Dariush has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Beneil Dariush (53.5%).
Tony Ferguson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson

Red Corner

Beneil Dariush

Blue Corner

+127

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-147

(60%)

1485

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Beneil DariushL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 23

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 23

vs Renato Moicano · Jun 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricBeneil Dariush

4.91

Strikes / min

3.74

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

55%

Strike defense

57%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

2.21

66%

Takedown defense

82%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony FergusonBeneil Dariush

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Beneil Dariush(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.7|Blue -4.7

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetBeneil Dariush

By target zone

34% acc · 67%

Head

33% acc · 70%

100% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

26% acc · 40%

Distance

34% acc · 65%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

80% acc · 53%

Ground

70% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Ferguson rounds

even

Beneil Dariush rounds

Round 1Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:40Control

Round 2Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:05

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:04Control

Round 3Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 34

Sig Strikes

23 / 55

46%

Sig Str %

43.3%

37 / 59

Total Strikes

76 / 142

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 6

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

12:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Beneil Dariush	10 / 28	32 / 66	1 / 2	0
1	Tony Ferguson	7 / 18	13 / 24	0 / 0	0
2	Beneil Dariush	6 / 14	26 / 41	1 / 2	1
2	Tony Ferguson	2 / 4	11 / 16	0 / 0	1
3	Beneil Dariush	7 / 13	18 / 35	1 / 2	0
3	Tony Ferguson	6 / 12	13 / 19	0 / 0	0

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Beneil Dariush

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights24