Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tony Ferguson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1485

Elo1493

Tony FergusonvsAnthony PettisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Saturday, October 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tony Ferguson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsAnthony Pettis: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Tony Ferguson wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Ferguson at -355 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tony Ferguson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson

Red Corner

Anthony Pettis

Blue Corner

-355

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1485

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Anthony PettisW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19

vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20

vs Donald Cerrone · May 20

vs Alex Morono · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricAnthony Pettis

4.91

Strikes / min

3.05

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

55%

Strike defense

54%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

0.61

66%

Takedown defense

60%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony FergusonAnthony Pettis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Anthony Pettis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.0|Blue +8.0

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +273.0|Blue -273.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetAnthony Pettis

By target zone

50% acc · 58%

Head

40% acc · 71%

66% acc · 18%

Body

69% acc · 20%

87% acc · 24%

Leg

67% acc · 9%

By position

106

59% acc · 93%

Distance

42% acc · 84%

57% acc · 4%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

Ground

83% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Ferguson rounds

even

Anthony Pettis rounds

Round 1Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes65

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:11Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

114 / 194

Sig Strikes

45 / 99

58%

Sig Str %

45%

115 / 195

Total Strikes

49 / 104

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Anthony Pettis	18 / 49	18 / 49	0 / 0
1	Tony Ferguson	49 / 85	49 / 85	0 / 0
2	Anthony Pettis	27 / 50	31 / 55	0 / 0
2	Tony Ferguson	65 / 109	66 / 110	0 / 0

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20