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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tony Ferguson won · SUB R2

Elo1485

Elo1363

Tony FergusonvsAbel TrujilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · Saturday, December 6, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tony Ferguson won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:19

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsAbel Trujillo: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Abel Trujillo wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Abel Trujillo at +295 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tony Ferguson threatens submissions; Abel Trujillo has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Tony Ferguson has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tony Ferguson has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson

Red Corner

Abel Trujillo

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1485

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

193.04 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Abel TrujilloL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gleison Tibau · Nov 15

SUBvs Tony Sims · Jan 16

vs Jordan Rinaldi · May 16

SUBvs James Vick · Feb 17

vs John Makdessi · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricAbel Trujillo

4.91

Strikes / min

2.65

4.37

Strikes absorbed / min

2.31

55%

Strike defense

59%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

2.18

66%

Takedown defense

40%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tony FergusonAbel Trujillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Abel Trujillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +122.0|Blue -122.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -210.0|Blue +210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetAbel Trujillo

By target zone

28% acc · 60%

Head

19% acc · 93%

100% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 7%

43% acc · 15%

Leg

By position

35% acc · 90%

Distance

18% acc · 73%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

11% acc · 7%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

43% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tony Ferguson rounds

even

Abel Trujillo rounds

Round 1Abel Trujillo edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:06Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Tony Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:02

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 55

Sig Strikes

15 / 76

40.5%

Sig Str %

15%

38 / 76

Total Strikes

16 / 77

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 5

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:02

Ctrl Time

2:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Abel Trujillo	14 / 65	15 / 66	2 / 2	0
1	Tony Ferguson	13 / 41	15 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Abel Trujillo	1 / 11	1 / 11	0 / 3	0
2	Tony Ferguson	7 / 14	23 / 33	1 / 1	1

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24

Abel Trujillo

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10