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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Tony Ferguson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1485
Elo1352
Aaron Riley

Tony FergusonvsAaron RileyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · Saturday, September 24, 2011Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Tony Ferguson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 5:00

Style matchupTony Ferguson: Pressure fightervsAaron Riley: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Aaron Riley wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Tony Ferguson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aaron Riley at +310 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Aaron Riley (53.5%).
  • Tony Ferguson has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tony Ferguson
Red Corner
VS
Aaron Riley
Blue Corner
-340
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+310
(24%)
1485
Elo
1352
42
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'8"
193.04 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tony FergusonL5 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Michael Chandler · May 22
L
SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22
L
SUBvs King Green · Jul 23
L
vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23
L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24
latest
Aaron Riley
oldest →
W
vs Joe Brammer · May 10
L
vs Justin Salas · Jul 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tony FergusonMetricAaron Riley
4.91
Strikes / min
3.45
4.37
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
55%
Strike defense
61%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
1.18
66%
Takedown defense
60%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1519Strikes21.0 vs 39.6Takedowns2.0 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.14Form1.0 vs 1.0
Tony FergusonAaron Riley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Tony Ferguson(10 fights)Aaron Riley(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +132.8|Blue -132.8
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -2.5|Blue +2.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -371.0|Blue +371.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tony FergusonTargetAaron Riley

By target zone

22
33% acc · 71%
Head
3
9% acc · 27%
6
75% acc · 19%
Body
4
57% acc · 36%
3
43% acc · 10%
Leg
4
57% acc · 36%

By position

29
37% acc · 94%
Distance
11
22% acc · 100%
2
67% acc · 6%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Tony Ferguson rounds
0
even
0
Aaron Riley rounds
Round 1Tony Ferguson edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns0
Control0:02
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
31 / 82
Sig Strikes
11 / 49
37%
Sig Str %
22%
31 / 82
Total Strikes
11 / 49
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Aaron Riley11 / 4911 / 490 / 00
1Tony Ferguson31 / 8231 / 820 / 00

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24

Aaron Riley

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights3