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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Tommy McMillen won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1553

Elo1492

Tommy McMillenvsAlberto MontesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Saturday, July 18, 2026Oklahoma City, USA

Official fight result

Tommy McMillen won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:29

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Tommy McMillen

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Tommy McMillen at -172 American odds · hypothetical only

+$58 profit

$158 total returned

Style matchupTommy McMillen: Pressure fightervsAlberto Montes: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tommy McMillen has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tommy McMillen

Red Corner

Alberto Montes

Blue Corner

-172

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+143

(41%)

1553

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'7"

187.96 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tommy McMillen

oldest →

KOvs Manolo Zecchini · Apr 26

latest

Alberto Montes

oldest →

SUBvs Ricky Turcios · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tommy McMillenMetricAlberto Montes

9.87

Strikes / min

5.26

5.54

Strikes absorbed / min

4.44

58%

Strike defense

60%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

83%

Takedown defense

77%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

6.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+4.33Δ 3.51 — meaningful gap+0.82

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tommy McMillen(2 fights)Alberto Montes(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +61.2|Blue -61.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tommy McMillenTargetAlberto Montes

By target zone

185

43% acc · 73%

Head

36% acc · 86%

80% acc · 21%

Body

50% acc · 7%

79% acc · 6%

Leg

80% acc · 7%

By position

234

48% acc · 93%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

58% acc · 4%

Clinch

70% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tommy McMillen rounds

even

Alberto Montes rounds

Round 1Tommy McMillen edged it

Sig. strikes74

Takedowns0

Control0:31

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tommy McMillen edged it

Sig. strikes97

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tommy McMillen edged it

Sig. strikes81

Takedowns0

Control0:26

Knockdowns2

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

252 / 513

Sig Strikes

56 / 147

49%

Sig Str %

35.3%

255 / 517

Total Strikes

56 / 147

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alberto Montes	23 / 56	23 / 56	0 / 0
1	Tommy McMillen	74 / 170	74 / 170	0 / 0
2	Alberto Montes	26 / 64	26 / 64	0 / 0
2	Tommy McMillen	97 / 197	97 / 198	0 / 0
3	Alberto Montes	7 / 27	7 / 27	0 / 0
3	Tommy McMillen	81 / 146	84 / 149	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Tommy McMillen

Odds

-172

Market-implied probability

Tommy McMillen 61%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Tommy McMillen (model pick · research)$158

Alberto Montes$243

61% market-implied · model 53% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC at -172 · never rewritten

Tommy McMillen

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2

Alberto Montes

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2