Middleweight

3 Rounds

David Branch won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1372

Tomasz DrwalvsDavid BranchUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · Wednesday, September 15, 2010Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

David Branch won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTomasz Drwal: WrestlervsDavid Branch: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tomasz Drwal wins(55.8%)

Actual result: David Branch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tomasz Drwal at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tomasz Drwal has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tomasz Drwal

Red Corner

David Branch

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1351

Elo

1372

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tomasz Drwal

oldest →

SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Mar 10

latest

David BranchL2 streak

oldest →

vs Krzysztof Jotko · May 17

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Sep 17

KOvs Thiago Santos · Apr 18

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Nov 18

SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tomasz DrwalMetricDavid Branch

3.29

Strikes / min

1.66

2.26

Strikes absorbed / min

1.91

57%

Strike defense

56%

3.55

TDs / 15 min

2.55

82%

Takedown defense

43%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap-0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tomasz DrwalDavid Branch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tomasz Drwal(2 fights)David Branch(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tomasz DrwalTargetDavid Branch

By target zone

19% acc · 70%

Head

42% acc · 53%

67% acc · 20%

Body

80% acc · 27%

33% acc · 10%

Leg

43% acc · 20%

By position

24% acc · 90%

Distance

37% acc · 47%

20% acc · 10%

Clinch

50% acc · 13%

Ground

75% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tomasz Drwal rounds

even

David Branch rounds

Round 1David Branch edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:14

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:21Control

Round 2David Branch edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:29

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:05Control

Round 3David Branch edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:40

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 43

Sig Strikes

15 / 31

25.7%

Sig Str %

48.7%

19 / 55

Total Strikes

62 / 85

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 10

—

TD %

48.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:23

Ctrl Time

7:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	David Branch	5 / 10	26 / 36	1 / 1
1	Tomasz Drwal	1 / 3	7 / 12	0 / 0
2	David Branch	5 / 12	8 / 15	1 / 5
2	Tomasz Drwal	5 / 23	7 / 25	0 / 0
3	David Branch	5 / 9	28 / 34	1 / 4
3	Tomasz Drwal	4 / 17	5 / 18	0 / 0

Tomasz Drwal

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights2

David Branch

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9