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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Tom Watson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1355

Elo1354

Tom WatsonvsStanislav NedkovUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · Saturday, February 16, 2013London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Tom Watson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:42

Style matchupTom Watson: Pressure fightervsStanislav Nedkov: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tom Watson wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Tom Watson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Watson at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Watson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Stanislav Nedkov has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Tom Watson has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Watson

Red Corner

Stanislav Nedkov

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1355

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom WatsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Thales Leites · Aug 13

vs Nick Catone · Feb 14

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 14

vs Rafael Natal · Jan 15

vs Chris Camozzi · Aug 15

latest

Stanislav Nedkov

oldest →

KOvs Luiz Cane · Aug 11

SUBvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom WatsonMetricStanislav Nedkov

4.01

Strikes / min

3.33

4.41

Strikes absorbed / min

5.39

50%

Strike defense

43%

0.15

TDs / 15 min

2.77

43%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap-2.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom WatsonStanislav Nedkov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Watson(7 fights)Stanislav Nedkov(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Recent Form

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -399.0|Blue +399.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom WatsonTargetStanislav Nedkov

By target zone

47% acc · 55%

Head

42% acc · 67%

68% acc · 41%

Body

81% acc · 33%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

19% acc · 5%

Distance

28% acc · 13%

62% acc · 89%

Clinch

66% acc · 49%

60% acc · 5%

Ground

48% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Watson rounds

even

Stanislav Nedkov rounds

Round 1Stanislav Nedkov edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control2:35

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 2Tom Watson edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control1:48

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

1:57Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 102

Sig Strikes

39 / 78

54.5%

Sig Str %

51.5%

72 / 118

Total Strikes

61 / 102

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 6

—

TD %

90%

Sub Att

Rev

4:23

Ctrl Time

2:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stanislav Nedkov	28 / 58	40 / 72	1 / 1
1	Tom Watson	24 / 47	29 / 52	0 / 0
2	Stanislav Nedkov	11 / 20	21 / 30	4 / 5
2	Tom Watson	32 / 55	43 / 66	0 / 0

Tom Watson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Stanislav Nedkov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3