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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Tom Watson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1431

Tom WatsonvsSam AlveyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 16, 2014Bangor, Maine, USA

Official fight result

Tom Watson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTom Watson: Pressure fightervsSam Alvey: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Tom Watson wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Tom Watson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Watson at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Watson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Sam Alvey has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sam Alvey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tom Watson

Red Corner

Sam Alvey

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1355

Elo

1431

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom WatsonL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stanislav Nedkov · Feb 13

vs Thales Leites · Aug 13

vs Nick Catone · Feb 14

vs Rafael Natal · Jan 15

vs Chris Camozzi · Aug 15

latest

Sam AlveyL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Spann · May 20

SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21

vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom WatsonMetricSam Alvey

4.01

Strikes / min

3.28

4.41

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

50%

Strike defense

52%

0.15

TDs / 15 min

0.06

43%

Takedown defense

82%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom WatsonSam Alvey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Watson(7 fights)Sam Alvey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -75.4|Blue +75.4

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -47.1|Blue +47.1

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom WatsonTargetSam Alvey

By target zone

32% acc · 40%

Head

47% acc · 87%

62% acc · 9%

Body

59% acc · 12%

88% acc · 51%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

51% acc · 93%

Distance

39% acc · 49%

50% acc · 7%

Clinch

65% acc · 49%

Ground

67% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Watson rounds

even

Sam Alvey rounds

Round 1Tom Watson edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:33

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Tom Watson edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:30

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Sam Alvey edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:23

52Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

85 / 167

Sig Strikes

82 / 168

50.7%

Sig Str %

44%

86 / 168

Total Strikes

91 / 177

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:26

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sam Alvey	12 / 38	13 / 39	0 / 0
1	Tom Watson	33 / 62	33 / 62	0 / 0
2	Sam Alvey	18 / 42	21 / 45	0 / 0
2	Tom Watson	28 / 58	29 / 59	0 / 1
3	Sam Alvey	52 / 88	57 / 93	0 / 0
3	Tom Watson	24 / 47	24 / 47	0 / 3

Tom Watson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Sam Alvey

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23