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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brad Tavares won · S-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1481

Tom WatsonvsBrad TavaresUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · Saturday, September 29, 2012Nottingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Brad Tavares won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTom Watson: Pressure fightervsBrad Tavares: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Brad Tavares wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Brad Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Tavares at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Watson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Brad Tavares has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Brad Tavares has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Watson

Red Corner

Brad Tavares

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1355

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom WatsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Thales Leites · Aug 13

vs Nick Catone · Feb 14

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 14

vs Rafael Natal · Jan 15

vs Chris Camozzi · Aug 15

latest

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom WatsonMetricBrad Tavares

4.01

Strikes / min

3.41

4.41

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

50%

Strike defense

54%

0.15

TDs / 15 min

0.70

43%

Takedown defense

80%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom WatsonBrad Tavares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Watson(7 fights)Brad Tavares(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -125.6|Blue +125.6

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +48.9|Blue -48.9

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom WatsonTargetBrad Tavares

By target zone

38% acc · 49%

Head

42% acc · 75%

71% acc · 31%

Body

86% acc · 14%

87% acc · 20%

Leg

82% acc · 11%

By position

48% acc · 80%

Distance

45% acc · 86%

69% acc · 17%

Clinch

85% acc · 13%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Watson rounds

even

Brad Tavares rounds

Round 1Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:19

38Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 2Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:01

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:09Control

Round 3Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:47

22Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 127

Sig Strikes

83 / 173

50.3%

Sig Str %

49.3%

72 / 134

Total Strikes

92 / 183

0 / 2

TDs

5 / 12

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:07

Ctrl Time

5:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brad Tavares	38 / 80	41 / 83	2 / 4
1	Tom Watson	29 / 55	29 / 55	0 / 1
2	Brad Tavares	23 / 58	25 / 61	1 / 2
2	Tom Watson	20 / 38	25 / 43	0 / 0
3	Brad Tavares	22 / 35	26 / 39	2 / 6
3	Tom Watson	16 / 34	18 / 36	0 / 1

Tom Watson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28