Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tom Nolan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1562

Elo1471

Tom NolanvsViacheslav BorshchevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Saturday, February 8, 2025Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Tom Nolan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTom Nolan: Pressure fightervsViacheslav Borshchev: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Tom Nolan wins(81.6%)

Actual result: Tom Nolan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Nolan at -102 American odds

+$98 profit

$198 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Nolan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Tom Nolan has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tom Nolan (53.5%).
Tom Nolan has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Nolan

Red Corner

Viacheslav Borshchev

Blue Corner

-102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-116

(54%)

1562

Elo

1471

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom NolanW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nikolas Motta · Jan 24

KOvs Victor Martinez · May 24

vs Alex Reyes · Aug 24

SUBvs Charlie Campbell · Sep 25

DECvs Fares Ziam · Jun 26

latest

Viacheslav BorshchevL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Maheshate · May 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · May 24

vs James Llontop · Aug 24

SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Jun 25

vs Matheus Camilo · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom NolanMetricViacheslav Borshchev

5.87

Strikes / min

5.10

4.73

Strikes absorbed / min

4.46

48%

Strike defense

57%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

0.00

71%

Takedown defense

43%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.14evenly matched on net striking+0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom NolanViacheslav Borshchev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Nolan(6 fights)Viacheslav Borshchev(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +90.2|Blue -90.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom NolanTargetViacheslav Borshchev

By target zone

33% acc · 62%

Head

30% acc · 30%

48% acc · 16%

Body

84% acc · 39%

68% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

39% acc · 91%

Distance

58% acc · 92%

45% acc · 7%

Clinch

25% acc · 2%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

50% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Nolan rounds

even

Viacheslav Borshchev rounds

Round 1Tom Nolan edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:25

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Viacheslav Borshchev edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control0:36

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:11Control

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 175

Sig Strikes

66 / 118

38.7%

Sig Str %

53.7%

111 / 236

Total Strikes

92 / 163

1 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

16.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:01

Ctrl Time

3:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Viacheslav Borshchev	19 / 29	19 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Tom Nolan	27 / 64	29 / 67	0 / 3	2
2	Viacheslav Borshchev	37 / 62	37 / 63	0 / 0	0
2	Tom Nolan	26 / 67	28 / 70	1 / 2	1
3	Viacheslav Borshchev	10 / 27	36 / 71	0 / 0	1
3	Tom Nolan	16 / 44	54 / 99	0 / 3	0

Tom Nolan

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Viacheslav Borshchev

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9