Lightweight

3 Rounds

Tom Nolan won · SUB R1

Elo1562

Elo1494

Tom NolanvsCharlie CampbellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Saturday, September 27, 2025Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Tom Nolan won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:08

Style matchupTom Nolan: Pressure fightervsCharlie Campbell: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tom Nolan wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Tom Nolan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Nolan at -158 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Nolan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Tom Nolan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tom Nolan

Red Corner

Charlie Campbell

Blue Corner

-158

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+134

(43%)

1562

Elo

1494

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom NolanW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nikolas Motta · Jan 24

KOvs Victor Martinez · May 24

vs Alex Reyes · Aug 24

vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Feb 25

DECvs Fares Ziam · Jun 26

latest

Charlie CampbellW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Reyes · Sep 23

vs Trevor Peek · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom NolanMetricCharlie Campbell

5.87

Strikes / min

5.23

4.73

Strikes absorbed / min

4.17

48%

Strike defense

55%

0.74

TDs / 15 min

2.45

71%

Takedown defense

62%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.14evenly matched on net striking+1.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom NolanCharlie Campbell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Nolan(6 fights)Charlie Campbell(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +67.9|Blue -67.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -308.0|Blue +308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom NolanTargetCharlie Campbell

By target zone

37% acc · 50%

Head

23% acc · 47%

45% acc · 35%

Body

20% acc · 7%

67% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 47%

By position

42% acc · 88%

Distance

36% acc · 93%

50% acc · 12%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

50% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Nolan rounds

even

Charlie Campbell rounds

Round 1Tom Nolan edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control0:34

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 61

Sig Strikes

15 / 42

42%

Sig Str %

35%

33 / 69

Total Strikes

15 / 42

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charlie Campbell	15 / 42	15 / 42	0 / 1	0
1	Tom Nolan	26 / 61	33 / 69	1 / 1	1

Tom Nolan

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Charlie Campbell

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3